NFL Football Game Previews - Updated: Weekly During The NFL Football Season
NFL Football Game Previews

Weekly previews for every NFL game on the schedule which will include stats, trends, and other information that should assist you in making successful football predictions this year. Check back each week and read these game previews before making your football picks to get more insight on all the week's games.


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Sports Betting Training Camp: Teasers and Sweetheart Teasers


It's one of the basic principles of sports betting: There are winners, and there are losers. But what if everybody who placed a bet on a game came out a winner?

Not only can it happen, it does - on a regular basis, too. And we're not afraid to let you know about it. There's a category of exotic bets out there called teasers where it is possible for the book to get stuck paying out everyone. Good thing there's enough action coming in on other bets to prevent overexposure, or else we'd be forced to shut our doors pretty quickly after giving away all that money.

Here's how it works. A teaser is a variation of the parlay bet, where you pick between two and 10 outcomes and you get paid out only if all your picks are correct. Those outcomes have to be on pointspreads and/or totals, and with a standard parlay, all the picks have to be used on either football or basketball games. You can also do a cross-sport parlay that mixes the two pastimes – which happen to be the two biggest draws in online sports gambling.

With a teaser, you lower the risk by moving the spreads and totals in your favor. You also lower your potential payout by doing so. For example, the Pittsburgh Steelers is a 3-point road favorites over the Miami Dolphins with a total of 40.5 points. With a football teaser, you have the option of buying six, 6.5 or seven points, and applying them to either side of the bet. If you were teasing a typical pointspread-total parlay on the Steelers-Dolphins by six points, here were your four options:

Steelers +3, UNDER 46.5
Steelers +3, OVER 34.5
Dolphins +9, UNDER 46.5
Dolphins +9, OVER 34.5

The Steelers win 23-22. Everyone who bet the teaser got paid. They got paid out at 10-11 instead of the standard 13-5 for a two-team parlay, but they all got paid nonetheless. This kind of game happens all the time.

Before you go slap a teaser on every single NFL game this Sunday, let's remind you about risk and reward. There is still risk involved with teasers; not every game is going to produce a winner for you, even if you buy seven points. And the reward is less than half the payday you would have received if you had played the standard two-team parlay. Some sharps prefer to avoid these exotic bets altogether, but there is a time and a place for teasers. First and foremost, there has to be a reason to buy the points – maybe you didn't trust a team at +3 and figured they'd lose by a touchdown. Moving the spread past a “magic number” like three or seven is also a positive value play.

If seven points aren't enough for you, then perhaps you'll prefer a sweetheart teaser. Now you can tease a football game by 10 points, but you have to parlay three teams to do it, and your payout would be the same 10-11 as a regular two-team, 6-point teaser. Or you can tease by 13 points with four teams involved at a potential 5-6 payout. Sweetheart teasers will produce more winning situations, but in addition to lower payouts, there's an additional risk of having a push come up. A standard teaser “reduces” in the event of a push, which means you still get paid for your winning picks as long as there are no losses among your selections. On the other hand, a push in a sweetheart teaser is as good as a loss.


Sports Betting Training Camp: Watching the Lines

How did Warren Buffett become one of the richest men in the world? Timing. Buffett was a disciple of economist Benjamin Graham, considered the father of value investing. Graham taught Buffett at Columbia University to avoid the herd mentality of the marketplace and focus on stocks that are available at discounted prices. Anyone who wants to make a buck from online sports gambling would be wise to do the same - and it doesn't take an Ivy League degree to figure out.

Timing is as much a part of betting on sports as it is with the stock market. Watching the betting lines fluctuate and picking your team at the right price is one of the pillars of sharp money management. The NFL happens to be one of the most volatile betting sports there is because the first odds go up on the board nearly a week in advance of the games themselves. A line could move dozens of times in that window of opportunity.

Never underestimate the power of the half-point. Those half-points get even more valuable when the pointspread is sitting on a "magic number" like three or seven. Because NFL is primarily a game of field goals and converted touchdowns, the most common winning margins are three and seven points. Roughly one in six games is decided by a field goal.

Sometimes it does benefit you to wait until the last minute. If you felt like a team was your pick last week, then you might be better off waiting as long as possible to see if you'd be able to get a better points spread. But from a value betting perspective, your best time to buy is often earlier in the week. The lines are at their softest at the open, before they've had a chance to react to the marketplace. Early action tends to be sharp action - again, most of the squares are busy with other things on a Tuesday.

The more attention you pay to the NFL betting lines, the more likely you'll be able to jump on the right team at the right price. This isn't something that has to take up too much brain power, either. Simply check on a semi-regular basis a sports book and take a peek at the odds list. Keep track of the prices; with practice, you'll be able to anticipate the market and time your purchases to maximum effect.


 

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